[ RETURN TO WATCH LIST ]TRADE POLICY • CUSTOMS DUTY • CENSUS / USITC HTS
[FIG 13] • OBSERVED U.S. TARIFF BURDEN • CENSUS / USITC EMPIRICAL AUDIT
Observed U.S. Tariff Burden on Canadian Shipments
“What is the true empirical customs duty paid on Canadian shipments entering the United States?” — This tracker measures customs duties assessed by U.S. Customs divided by consumption imports. It is distinct from statutory tariff rates.
OBSERVATION PERIOD: Jul 2026•SOURCE RELEASE: 2026-09-04•VALUATION BASIS: Imports for Consumption (CBP Duties)•DISCLAIMER: Empirical Collections ≠ Statutory Rates
CRITICAL METHODOLOGICAL DISTINCTION: EMPIRICAL DUTY ASSESSMENTS VS. STATUTORY HTS CODES
The figures in this tracker quantify the actual empirical customs duties collected by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) divided by total general imports for consumption. They do NOT represent theoretical maximum statutory tariffs or political proposals. Under CUSMA/USMCA, 96.3% of Canadian merchandise clears into the United States entirely duty-free.
Observed Effective Duty Burden
0.24%
$1.07B on $438.9B
Duty-Free Share
96.3%
CUSMA Preferential Entry
Dutiable Share
3.7%
$16.4B Subject to Duty
Calculated Duty
$1,075M
Annual Run-rate ($ USD)
China Comparison
14.65%
Section 301 Tariff Impact
PRIMARY DITHER VISUALIZATION:Observed U.S. Customs Duty Burden on Canada (2015–2026)
Calculated Duty Collected as % of Total Consumption Imports
Gray bars represent Dutiable Share (% of total value subject to tariffs). Solid line represents Effective Observed Tariff Burden (Calculated Duty / Total Value).Peak: 0.37% (2018 Section 232) • Baseline: 0.24% (2026 CUSMA)
| Reference Period | Consumption Imports | Dutiable Value | Duty-Free Value | Duty Collected | Effective Observed Burden | Dutiable Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | $296.3B | $8.4B | $287.9B | $415M | 0.140% | 2.85% |
| 2016 | $277.8B | $7.8B | $270.0B | $390M | 0.140% | 2.80% |
| 2017 | $300.0B | $9.3B | $290.7B | $510M | 0.170% | 3.10% |
| 2018 | $319.7B | $15.5B | $304.2B | $1,180M | 0.370% | 4.85% |
| 2019 | $319.4B | $12.4B | $306.9B | $860M | 0.270% | 3.90% |
| 2020 | $270.4B | $9.5B | $260.9B | $620M | 0.230% | 3.50% |
| 2021 | $357.2B | $13.0B | $344.2B | $890M | 0.250% | 3.65% |
| 2022 | $436.6B | $16.4B | $420.2B | $1,130M | 0.260% | 3.75% |
| 2023 | $421.1B | $15.2B | $405.9B | $980M | 0.230% | 3.60% |
| 2024 | $428.5B | $15.8B | $412.7B | $1,020M | 0.240% | 3.68% |
| 2025 | $434.2B | $16.1B | $418.1B | $1,060M | 0.240% | 3.72% |
| 2026 (Trailing 12M) | $438.9B | $16.4B | $422.5B | $1,075M | 0.240% | 3.74% |
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau & USITC (FT900 Imports for Consumption & USITC HTS Change Records)
LAST UPDATED OBSERVATION: Jul 2026